2018 Box Office Predictions
I love making predictions. It’s exciting and gives me a chance to tap into my inner Raven Baxter. Oh snap! I also love looking at the box office numbers, my second favorite type of numbers after musical numbers. By breaking down the box office, you can determine a film’s cultural relevance. And box office numbers are the only numbers that make me go full Asian. So, here are my predictions for the top ten grossing films of the 2018 domestic box office. (I apologize in advanced for the length of this post. I’m totally fine with you scrolling to the bottom for the list and disrespecting me. I’m used to being disrespected! )
At number 10 I’m placing a film that will make money, but I hope makes A LOT of money, Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (Please Disney gods, don’t let this be the final title!). Currently, Disney has five sure fire money makers: Marvel, Star Wars, Live-Action Remakes, Pixar and their Animation Studios. Of these five, their Animation Studios historically makes the least money. Of the Animation Studios, Wreck-it-Ralph (2012) is one of their lowest grossing films ending with nearly $190 million. As the studio’s first theatrically released animated sequel since The Rescuers Down Under (1990), there’s not much to compare it with. However, it’s a beloved film and the premise alone could help the box office skyrocket. Only one scene has been shown from Ralph’s journey through the internet, it involves our hero meeting with R2-D2, C3PO and all of the Disney Princesses. Imagine the marketing material for this film. By exploring the internet, the posters have no limits. I think this installment will see a huge increase from the first, I’ll say Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (JUST CALL IT “WRECK-IT-RALPH 2”) will be at number 10 with about $250 million.
At number 9, I’m going with Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch. Slated for a November release, I expect this film to do big in the box office. Since Despicable Me (2010), Illumination sky rocketed to become a box office heavy weight. Not only do they have the power of Minions but their two non-Despicable Me animated projects made a remarkable amount of money. Domestically, Sing (2016) and The Secret Life of Pets (2015) are the 15th and 7th highest grossing animated films. Both films have out grossed Disney’s Moana (2016), Big Hero 6 (2014), Tangled (2010) and Wreck-it-Ralph (2012). Then you must include the brand recognition. The Grinch is an annual staple in the American lexicon. The Grinch will be a giant hit. I question if it can compete with the other films on this list, so I predict that it will be in 9th place with about $265 million.
My prediction for number 8 is Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp. The first Ant-Man was a victim of odd timing coming off the mixed reception of Avengers: Age of Ultron. Not only that but it seemed to not be marketed as well as some other movies. I’m just saying, why wasn’t Ant-Man on a bag of Lay’s potato chips? So it’s not surprising that audiences weren’t rushing to see the bug-based hero’s initial outing. However, everyone rushed to see Captain America: Civil War (2016). Paul Rudd’s scene stealing one-liners could make Ant-Man and the Wasp a must see. Not only that but The Wasp is the first female hero that we can refer to as a “titular hero” in the MCU. Marvel seems much more committed to this film than the last, I am guessing it will make around $280 million. Sure, a $100 million increase is huge, but the Ant-Man sub-franchise is the only one in the MCU that has a huge space for improvement. So at number 8, Ant-Man and the Wasp with $280 million.
The biggest question mark on my list is A Wrinkle in Time, a film that I’m optimistically placing at number 7. Directed by Ava DuVernay, this early 2018 release can pull an Alice in Wonderland (2010). Tim Burton’s interpretation was a visual spectacle that made over $300 million in the domestic box office. Or it can go the route of Tomorrowland (2015), a promising looking film that flopped with only $90 million. If I was a betting man (which I will never do unless I’m on the search for my identical hand twin), I would bet that Wrinkle in Time will make a lot of money. And I mean, A LOT of money. This is a film placed in the hands of a visionary director, Ava DuVernay, who has received accolade after accolade for her previous two films, Selma (2014) and 13th (2016). Every shot in the trailer is colorful, inviting and yet simultaneously mysterious and eerie. Then you throw in the cast that covers just about every demographic: Chris Pine, Zach Galifinakis, Michael Pena, Mindy Kailing, Reese Witherspoon and Oprah motherf***ing Winfrey. Just like Home Alone 2: Lost in New York, this film may feature a future president! I think the biggest hurdle for this film is delivering on its potential. It’s ambitious, but big risks can deliver big rewards. I have faith in DuVernay, so I’m going to say number 7 with $320 million.
At number 6 is a film that I would have never expected would have so much hype, the first blockbuster of the year, Black Panther. Last summer biggest hit was a surprise, Wonder Woman. DC secured its first beloved hit by delivering a great superhero flick to a market that has been largely ignored by the genre. Wonder Woman defied expectations and would go on to make over $400 million. It can be argued that Wonder Woman was the most important film of 2017. I think Black Panther will be this year’s equivalent. Just like Ant-Man, the king of Wakanda made a memorable appearance in Civil War, creating a fanbase within the general audience. However, Ant-Man isn’t the first major black superhero film since Blade: Trinity (2004). Directed by Creed (2015) and Fruitvale Station (2012) director Ryan Coogler, I have so much faith in this film. Creed proved that the guy can do action and every sequence in the trailers look awesome. Then there’s the cast. Not only does this close out Coogler’s Michael B. Jordan trilogy but it also features Chadwick Boseman, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Daniel Kaluuya, Martin Freeman, Andy Serkis, Angela Bassett and Forest Whitaker. Damn. This movie, the first gigantic African American led superhero film, is releasing in February, Black History Month. I’m saying number 6 with $350 million.
At number 5 is my most anticipated film of the year. As previously mentioned, Disney has many surefire box office hits. I’ve just realized that Disney films make up 70% of my list. We must all prepare to bow down to our future leaders, the Disney corporation. This next title will be the latest from Pixar, Incredibles 2. A film that will make more money than I can in 23 lifetimes, Incredibles 2 has two possible routes: follow the downhill slope of the Cars franchise and Monsters University (2013) or break records like Finding Dory (2016) or the Toy Story franchise. I think we have another record breaker in the mix. Originally, Incredibles 2 was slated to release in 2019 and Toy Story 4 in 2018. In 2016, the release dates were swapped. Thus (it’s so much fun to use “thus” in a sentence!), it seems that Pixar has more hope for the fantastic foursome. I think this is a film that will be able to buy Frozone 400 new super suits. (I’m assuming that one super suit costs one million dollars.) At number 5, I think this superhero sequel will “GET BUSY” and make $400 million.
I want to put this movie at number 69, the TITular character would love the placement. Oh well, number 4 is Deadpool 2. I have faith in our lord and savior, Ryan Reynolds. After X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) aka Fox’s DCEU shaped disaster, Reynolds has done everything in his power to bring the merc with a mouth onto the silver screen. He is the reason that Fox’s X-Men franchise is off life support. (What? Disney bought Fox??? WHAT THE FOX??? They better turn Deadpool’s dick into a Hidden Mickey.) Anyways, this movie will kill at the box office. I’m guessing a jump in revenue like the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise. Let’s say at number 4, Deadpool 2 will make $420 million. I’m sure Mr. Pool would love that.
This is where the list gets tricky. At number 3, I’m saying Avengers: Infinity War. I think that there is no doubt as to what the top 3 will be. The question is, how high can they go? Infinty War is going to number three because of its release date. Sure, it’s the first blockbuster of the summer but this summer is the most packed yet. Two weeks later will see the releases of Deadpool 2 and possible horror hit, Slender Man. The next week, will see a war in the stars. I think that the 19th installment in the MCU will make so much money, but the possible repeat viewing will be stolen by the top two films on my list. So number 3, Avengers: Infinty War, $450 million. It will follow the downhill trajectory of the Avengers sub-franchise but the addition of the Guardians of the Galaxy will help it surpass Civil War.
Number 2 is a sequel to a film that befuddles me. I sensed no hype for the previous installment and still sense no passion for the film. Still, it’s domestic gross of $652 million makes it the fourth highest grossing film of all time, even ahead of The Avengers (2012). That is why I expect Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to make a fortune. I have no opinion on Jurassic World (2015), a film I still have not watched, but the consensus seems to be mixed. I question how well the new installment will be received. With recent domestic box office bombs like Transformers: The Last Knight, The Mummy and (arguably) Justice League, 2017 has proven that a film’s reception can kill it. I’m expecting a drop similar to the first two Avengers. The Avengers and Jurassic World made similar box office totals and Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) is generally considered worse than the original. Throw in a lack of gargantuan competitors in the week to follow and I’ll say that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will be at number 2 with about $475 million.
Finally, number 1. But first, a commercial break.
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Welcome back. At number 1, I’m predicting Solo: A Star Wars Story to make it a four-year streak of Star Wars films topping the box office. Now, this is the most worried I’ve been of this new batch of Star Wars movies. Not only have they not shown any sort of marketing material outside of a cast photo four months away from release, but they also changed directors last minute. Reader, I have a bad feeling about this. However, the cast gives me a new hope: Alden Ehrenreich (the best part of Hail Caesar!), Woody Harrelson (an actor that elevates every film that he’s in), Emilia “Daenerys of the House Targaryen, the First of Her Name, The Unburnt, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Queen of Meereen, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Dragons” Clarke and Donald “Childish Gambino” Glover. Even if it’s the worst of this new batch of celestial battles, nothing can defeat it. It is noteworthy that it’s currently slated to release in May, who knows if a change in date can affect the box office juggernaut. I’m saying that Solo will be the highest grosser with $550 million.
To recap:
Solo: A Star Wars Story ($550 mil)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($475 mil)
Avengers: Infinity War ($450 mil)
Deadpool 2 ($420 mil)
Incredibles 2 ($400 mil)
Black Panther ($350 mil)
A Wrinkle in Time ($320 mil)
Ant-Man and the Wasp ($280 mil)
The Grinch ($265 mil)
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it-Ralph 2 ($250 mil)
Wildcards – titles that I think could slip into the domestic top 10
Ready Player One – Spielberg hasn’t had the most success in the box office this decade. However, this could be a return to form for the legendary director. The movie looks cool and the seemingly infinite amount of pop culture Easter eggs could drive audiences to a new classic in the Spielberg canon
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald – I want this movie to be good, especially because the first Fantastic Beast made less money than every Harry Potter. If it’s good, be prepared to see Eddie Redmayne in the top ten..
Mary Poppins Returns– The December slot usually has a Star War and another box office hit (Sing, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle). I would bet on this sequel starring Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda.