90th Oscar Winners Predictions
It’s Oscar night!!! To celebrate, here are my predictions for every category. Yes, every category. Let’s just say, some categories are easier to predict than others. I’m not even sure what some of them award. But who cares? In the end, everyone will forget in a year. But not me, I NEVER FORGET ANYTHING.
What was I saying? Oh yeah, here are my predictions!!!
Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Ladybird is my favorite film of the year. However, I think it has the 4th best shot of winning. The two front runners all season have been The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. However, I think the preferential ballot will help Ladybird and Get Out, both films with a 99% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It would make sense following the recent upsets made by Spotlight (97%) and Moonlight (98%). Unlike the other big categories, this one is still up in the air. I can’t confidently go with Billboards since McDonagh missed out on Director while Ladybird and Get Out have no below the line nominations. And so, here’s my ranking:
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ladybird
Everything Else
Lead Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Gary Oldman. Ok, let’s move on. (But actually, I can see the Academy’s love for Phantom Thread manifesting itself in a goodbye award for Day-Lewis. Unlikely, but still possible.)
Gary Oldman
Daniel Day-Lewis
Timothée Chalamet
Daniel Kaluuya
Denzel Washington
Lead Actress:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
I think this lineup will go down as one of the best group of nominees in Oscar history. It hurts my soul that McDormand is wining every televised award because all five of them deserve it. If Shape of Water wins Best Picture, maybe Hawkins can go along for the ride. Alas, the race seems to be over already.
Frances McDormand
Sally Hawkins
Saoirse Ronan
Margot Robbie
Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Again, another race that looks like a lock. That’s fine. This race means nothing since Michael Stuhlbarg wasn’t nominated for Call Me by Your Name. Still, Rockwell will be a very derserved win. (PSA: I still haven’t seen All the Money in the World. Maybe that’s an incredible performance that could win, who knows?)
Sam Rockwell
Willem Dafoe
Christopher Plummer
Richard Jenkins
Woody Harrelson
Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
My heart says Metcalf but my brain says Janney. And yet I’m not too disappointed here, I am in awe of what Janney does in I, Tonya. It’s just not as fun when the winners seem predictable. Oh well, still very deserved.
Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf
Lesley Manville
Octavia Spencer
Mary J. Blige
Director:
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
Another race that seems to be over before it even started. Del Toro will win. But again, this is one of the best lineups in recent years. Any of these five would be a worthy winner.
Guillermo del Toro
Jordan Peele
Greta Gerwig
Christopher Nolan
Paul Thomas Anderson
Animated Feature:
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman
Although this has been a great year in film, animated films just got a kick in the nuts. Coco will win, I just wish it had some bigger competition.
Coco
Everything Else
Animated Short:
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer
Watching all five of these in a row made for a delightful afternoon. Honestly, who knows? Without any precursor ceremonies, none of the shorts have real momentum. I think the winner will be Garden Party. Not only is it enjoyably dark and comedic but the animation is photorealistic. I’ve never seen an animated film so lifelike and I think that will give it the win.
Garden Party
Dear Basketball
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Adapted Screenplay:
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Not only is the film incredible but Call Me by Your Name is the only Best Picture nominee of the group. Another slam-dunk.
Call Me by Your Name
Everything Else
Original Screenplay:
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
This can go so many ways. Except for The Big Sick. I love that film but its nomination is its victory. I can picture a world where Shape of Water wins with a sweep, adding Screenplay to its wins. Both Ladybird and Get Out could leave with a sole win here. Get Out won the Writer’s Guild Award. However, Ladybird beat Get Out just this weekend at the Indie Spirit Award. Then there’s Billboards, whose script was ineligible for the WGA, somehow snubbed at the Spirit Awards and won at the Golden Globes. It’s tough, so I’m going on my thoughts on the films. All are incredible, but I think the film’s sharp dialogue and sagely wisdom will give McDonagh the win.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Get Out
Ladybird
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick
Cinematography:
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
All five of these films are gorgeous to look at. However, Roger Deakins has 14 nominations without a win. Here’s to breaking the streak tonight.
Blade Runner 2049
Everything Else
Best Documentary Feature:
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
I haven’t seen any of these. I hear Faces Places is amazing. People seem to have heard of Icarus.
Faces Places
Icarus
Everything Else
Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner
I haven’t seen any of these either. I just listed them alphabetically.
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner
Best Live Action Short Film:
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen
DeKalb is extremely relevant. It doesn’t hurt that it’s also one hell of a powerful film. But then there’s The Silent Child which will tug at your heartstrings. And don’t sleep on The Eleen O’Clock. As the only comedy in the lineup, being the relief could help garner some votes.
DeKalb Elementary
The Silent Child
The Eleven O’Clock
Watu Wote/All of Us
My Nephew Emmett
Best Foreign Language Film:
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
Fantastic Woman has all the buzz because of its social relevance. I just watched it today and am happy to say that the film lives up to the buzz. Also, I haven’t seen any of the other nominees…
A Fantastic Woman
Everything Else
Film Editing:
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory
The editing is a character in both Tonya and Baby Driver. Both are deserving. The ACE Eddie Awards (the awards just for editing) awarded Tonya and Dunkirk. Following last year’s win for Hacksaw Ridge, I’m placing my money on Dunkirk with my fingers crossed for I, Tonya.
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sound Editing:
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
I don’t understand how to judge sound. My understanding is that “sound editing” would be the actual sound effects. Blade Runner 2049 had some cool sound effects.
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Sound Mixing:
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick
I believe that “sound mixing” is more of how well all of the sounds work together. There’s a lot of sounds during wars…
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Production Design:
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
My simpleton mind can’t comprehend how Blade Runner 2049 was made. However, Shape of Water is probably the safer bet. All five are worthy winners. Here we go…
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Beauty and the Beast
Original Score:
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
It feels like another win for Shape of Water but that Phantom Thread score is incredible.
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Original Song:
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
This is a two-horse race. This is Me is the more enjoyable song but Remember Me will make you weep. I’m going for emotion over fun.
Coco
The Greatest Showman
Call Me by Your Name
Mudbound
Marshall
Makeup and Hair:
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten
Yeah… looks like Darkest Hour will have at least two Oscars.
Darkest Hour
Everything Else
Costume Design:
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle
Phantom Thread is about dresses. I guess that’ll win?
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Visual Effects:
“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
This new Planet of the Apes trilogy has yet to win this award and that is an Oscars travesty. But… that sex scene in Blade Runner is undeniably one of the best scenes of the year.
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Kong: Skull Island